Obama clinches it as Clinton pulls one more surprise...

As the gruelling five-month Democratic nomination race appears to be finally over with Barack Obama expected to clinch victory, beaten Hillary Clinton pulled one more surprise - by winning the South Dakota primary against predictions.

Despite her win, Barack Obama is thought likely to pick up enough delegates in Montana and South Dakota as well as so-called super-delegates to allow him to claim victory.

She appeared to accept the inevitable, praising 'her friend' Barack Obama and what he has achieved in his remarkable campaign.

But she also refused to concede defeat, telling her screaming New Yorkers that she would "make no decisions tonight".

Earlier, Republican nominee John McCain, clearly seeing who he will be facing in the Election in November, praised 'his friend' Hillary Clinton and said she had not received the recognition she deserved.

As Barack Obama has made 'change' his winning mantra, McCain attacked him as 'the wrong change' and claimed he, McCain, was 'the right change'.

He also attempted to distance himself from Bush and likely Obama attacks that a vote for McCain will be for a disastrous third term of Bush...

Less than a year ago, few people has even heard of Barack Obama: Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in to win the Democratic nomination and unstoppable as the first woman President of the United States.

At the same time, John McCain's chances had been written off as unlikely winner of even the Republican nomination.

If a week's a long time in politics, a year is a lifetime...

UPDATE: Barack Obama: '...I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States...'

Obama makes it 12 states in a row...but Clinton wins RI

Looks like Barack Obama is about to claim his 12th victory in a row by beating Hillary Clinton for the Democrat primary in tiny Vermont tonight...

But it's still too close to call in both the crucial big states of Ohio and Texas, where there are also primaries tonight.

Hillary was expected to do well in the rust-belt depressed areas of Ohio - like Youngstown where I worked briefly in Al Gore's campaign eight years ago!

(Remember Al: he used to be the man who was the next President...!)

Despite Barack's victory in Vermont, I suspect Hillary will do enough to hang on.

But if she loses both Ohio and Texas, I hope she listens to her husband Bill.

He's said if she loses both, it's all over for her.

We've seen enough of Democrats tearing lumps out of each other and if it's not settled soon, the only winner will be John McCain, who sealed the Republican nomination in Vermont tonight...

UPDATE: Hillary has won Rhode Island, the fourth state choosing it's favoured Democrat candidate tonight, ending Barack Obama's month long run of wins...still too close to call in the big states of Ohio and Texas.

Hillary shows signs of desperation while Nadar wades in...

Hillary Clinton first said what an honour it was to be on a platform with Barack Obama - but later attacked him full-on, accusing him of using disgraceful smears out of the Republican campaign handbook.

Desperate to do well in next week's crunch states of Texas and Ohio, Hillary cried 'Shame on You Barack Obama', in what appeared to be a moment of desperation at failing to win any of the past 11 state nominations.

There were even reports over the weekend that she may be preparing to quit as the Obama steamroller appears unstoppable. But Hillary is a Clinton and she ain't no quitter.

However, whether she's right or not on the issue (health care insurance), I suspect her no-hold barred attack will backfire and only serve to boost Barack Obama's chances of winning the Democratic nomination.

But in this race, nothing is certain. And we'll have to wait and see. Even if Hillary loses both Texas and Ohio, some pundits say she'll attempt to carry on in the last-ditch hope of picking up enough of the so called 'super' delegates who go to the Convention with no firm mandate.

Meanwhile, even worse news for the Democrats: once highly respected consumer champion Ralph Nader announced he will run for the White House again.

Eight years ago Nadar split the anti-Republican vote and effectively gave the world President George W. Bush.

Some people never learn...

UPDATED: Obama wins 3 more states as Clinton's deputy campaign manager quits

Looks like Barack Obama is having another good night at the office. CNN say he's winning the primary in the crucial state of Virginia by something like 60-40 over Hillary Clinton.

If he also wins Washington DC and Maryland tonight, it could be very difficult for Hillary to come back: But before tonight's polls were even closed, she was in El Paso, Texas for a big rally ahead of the biggest night of primaries still to come on March 4th when Ohio and Texas choose their nominee. For good measure, Hillary is reported to have done satellite TV interviews today with ten separate TV channels in Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin where the primary takes place next Tuesday.

Barack Obama will hope to also do well next Tuesday in Hawaii - the State where Barack grew up.

Worrying news from Virginia tonight for Hillary: At the start of the campaign for the Democrat nomination, she had the support of many black Americans. But husband Bill's attacks on Barack Obama seem to have backfired. In Virginia, CNN says the black contender picked up 90-per-cent of the black vote, easily his biggest proportion in any state so far.

Even worse for Hillary, he appears to have outvoted her among women - said to be Hillary's backbone of support.

UPDATE: Barack is now ahead not only in states won, but more importantly in terms of number of delegates. He has 1,170 delegates, she has 1,168...it could hardly be closer, but for now, Barack has the magic momentum...

UPDATE 2: Clinton's deputy campaign manager quit tonight says CNN who precict Maryland and Washington DC comfortably for Obama. In DC, he's winning by a massive 3-1 margin...

Obama wins Maine for five in a row, as Clinton's campaign manager steps down...

CNN predict Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucus in Maine - giving him a clean sweep of all five contests over the weekend and putting him almost neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton for the nomination.

Hillary is a narrowly ahead in numbers of delegates secured with 1,148 over Barack's 1,121. But he has won more states, and he clearly has the all-important momentum going into crucial contests tomorrow (Tuesday).

Hillary is reported to have lent her campaign $5 million last week and after her showing on the weekend she has 'replaced' her campaign manager.

The Democrat circus now heads for Maryland, the District of Columbia and crucially Virginia where battles take place tomorrow...

Meanwhile, John Edwards who dropped out of the race after Super Tuesday last week, is reported to be having meetings with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but he's keeping tight-lipped over which, if any, of the front-runners he will support.

Obama wins Georgia and Illinois: Clinton wins Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee...

First CNN predictions from Super Tuesday calls Georgia and Illinois for Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton wins Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee.

No surprise that Hillary wins President Clinton's home state of Arkansas.

No surprise either that Obama wins either his home state of Illinois or Georgia where he led from start to finish: CNN originally forecast Obama winning 2:1 over Hillary which would have been even bigger than his win in South Carolina.

But with the first actual results in, CNN have closed their Georgia prediction to an Obama win in the order of 55%-45%.

All of which seems to show once again how wildly out American pollsters can be, even on their exit polls.

So it's a long night ahead with almost half of all American voters eligible to vote today, and and polls now closed in half the states choosing tonight. There's still three more hours of voting on the west coast including California, where Hillary is still favourite.

Turnout appears to be reaching a record high coast-to-coast reflecting the closeness of the Clinton-Obama clash.

But even when all the Super Tuesday votes are counted in all the states, many pundits expect the Democrat race to be so close that there may not even be a clear winner when we wake up tomorrow.

In the Republican camp, tonight is expected to give Vietnam veteran John McCain the nomination, though early predictions give Romney some states.

If McCain does clinch the nomination at 71 he would be the oldest ever President to enter the White House - if he were to win the general election in the fall.

So it looks likely that the next President will either be the first woman President, the first black President or the oldest ever President...

UPDATE:
McCain still favoured to win Connecticut, Illinois and New Jersey, with Mitt Romney taking Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee taking West Virginia.

3am UPDATE:
Clinton projected to win Massachusetts by at least ten points. This is a big loss for Obama who spent eve of poll rallying his vote in Mass. Clinton also projected to win her own state of New York, as well as next door New Jersey, and the key state of Arizona.

Obama protected to win Alabama and Delaware.

So with ten of tonight's 24 states now called, Clinton is projected to win six and Obama four.

With voting still going on in California, it's likely to be our breakfast time before clear results are in with delays expected due to higher than expected turnout.

Bedtime! A new day dawns, does it not?

Hillary wins hollow victory in Florida: will Giuliani now back McCain...?

Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination for Florida - but it's a hollow victory.

None of the main Democrats campaigned in Florida following a national decision to punish the state for having the temerity to hold their primary ahead of next week's Super Tuesday when over 20 states make their choice.

Four states were allowed to break the rules - but not Florida!

Although a bit of a sideshow, the win gave Hillary a chance to make a victory speech on national TV ahead of Super Tuesday.

She campaigned for Florida to get its delegates reinstated to the national convention. If there is no decisive winner coming out of Super Tuesday, a late decision to admit Florida to the party could be crucial for Hillary.

But the big story in Florida is in the Republican camp. With half the precincts reporting, John McCain is on 36 per cent, Mitt Romney on 32, but former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is trailing a poor third on only 15 per cent.

It appears that Giuliani has spectacularly lost his huge gamble to put all his eggs - and money - into the Florida basket, and stay out of previous contests. It meant he had to win Florida to have any chance of a shot at the nomination.

Will Giuliani go to California in the next 24 hours, withdraw from the contest, but back John McCain, and still be in with a chance of becoming Vice-Presidential candidate on a McCain ticket?

Clinton concedes defeat in South Carolina: huge win for Obama...

With more than two-thirds of the precincts now declared, Barack Obama heading for a huge victory over Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary.

It puts Obama back on level-pegging with Clinton, with each of them winning two states.

But winning by such a huge margin badly hurts Hillary Clinton. It will Barack Obama with the momentum going on to Super Tuesday in nine days time when 22 states make their nomination. And it will be Hillary Clinton who is on the back foot again...

Looks like this race will go down to the wire.

UPDATE: With 95% of precincts now reported, Barack Obama has increased his lead to 28 points over Hillary Clinton...

Will history be made in South Carolina tonight...? UPDATED

Could history be made tonight in South Carolina...? Or will we have to wait ten days until Super-Dooper Tuesday before we know who's likely to be the next President of the United States.

The smart money is on Vietnam veteran John McCain to win the Republican nomination but I can't see him, or anyone else, stopping the Democrats after eight years of George Dubya Bush.

So it's odds-on that within a year, we'll see either the first black President or the first female President in the White House.

My heart's still with Barack Obama, but my money's on former first Lady
Hillary Clinton.

Tonight, the pressure is on Barack Obama to win the first Democratic primary in a state with a large black population - almost a third.

Race itself appears to have become an issue in the race as reported by Associated Press tonight.

It will be interesting to see how the black vote in SC splits, with many recalling that Hillary's husband Bill was generally supported by black voters. There has been some analysis showing that Clinton has so far fared better in states with secret ballots for the nomination rather than in open caucus events, suggesting that race may still be an issue.

What makes tonight's contest more interesting is that South Carolina is the home state of the very able John Edwards who is currently running third in the race for the Democrat nomination. Edwards needs a strong showing tonight to stay in the race. If he drops out before Super Tuesday, whether he backs Obama or Clinton could be crucial in deciding the eventual winner.

The final polls before voting in SC put Barack Obama eight points ahead of Hillary Clinton, with each of them anxious to talk up their rival's chances and underplay their own expectations.

Voting closes at 7pm local time in SC and CNN are reporting a record turnout in places, which could favour Obama.

I can see it's going to be another long night for anoraks like me...but nothing compared to the long night faced by the frontrunners and their campaign teams.

As the polls close in South Carolina, the race hots up in the 21 Super Tuesday states. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be flying out of South Carolina later tonight to start campaigning elsewhere - even before tonight's results are known.

UPDATE: With voting now closed, exit polls analysed but no actual votes yet counted, CNN are predicting Obama will win South Carolina comfortably.

Nevada bets on Hillary...UPDATED

Hillary Clinton is claiming a big win in a record turnout in Nevada. Following her surprise comeback to take New Hampshire, the gambling state has put her back on track as the front-runner to take the Democrat nomination and become the first female President.

But as we've already seen in the caucus in Iowa and the primary in New Hampshire, anything could happen in this race.

Barack Obama is still in the fight: a CNN national poll published yesterday showed him making big gains among black voters who previously backed Hillary Clinton.

Barack is expected to do well in South Carolina, next stop on the Democrat campaign trail where voting takes place in a week's time. But it may not be settled Super Tuesday next month when Democrats in 20 states pick their favoured candidate for October's election.

Meanwhile, the Republican race is taking place both Nevada and South Carolina tonight. CNN are calling Nevada for the man with the most money Mitt Romney, who hopes to become the first Mormon in the Oval Office. But the smart money seems to be on Vietnam veteran John McCain. In SC, McCain appears to be ahead and is apparently calling for an extension to voting hours following reports of machinery malfunctions...

When will Americans learn that a blunt pencil is infinitely more reliable than their duff electronic gadgetry...?

UPDATE: With 97% of the Democrat caucuses in Nevada now reported, CNN says Hillary is on 51%and Barack Obama on 45%.

Hillary: winning in New Hampshire to become the 'comeback candidate...'

2.45am: It's so tight. CNN report that with 46% of the results in, Hillary Clinton has 40 per cent of the vote, with Barack Obama on 36.

Still a long way to go til this one's settled...

Sticking with CNN as they are updating by the minute.

2.55am: Getting tighter...52% of the precincts in: Clinton 39%, Obama 37%.

3.25am: Now 62% of precincts have reported: Clinton 39%, Obama 36%.

3.30am: 64% in: Clinton holding 39%, Obama still on 36%.

3.48am: 73% in: No change in margins.

With almost three-quarters of the vote declared, it's unlikely to change the result significantly now...so I'm off to bed.

What an amazing result for Hillary after the roller-coaster of the past few days saw her written off by many pundits and certainly fighting for her political life.

The race with Barack Obama for the White House goes on...But after New Hampshire, Hillary has proved she's the comeback candidate.

Wonder if it was that trick of John Major's with the soap-box that did the trick?

Late surge by Hillary: its too close to call...

Polls now closed in New Hampshire and counting underway. The ABC network - and others - say a late surge by Hillary Clinton makes the Democrat nomination too close to call.

Associated Press have just reported it's neck-and-neck. Edwards is definitely third.

Obama may still win, but it looks likely the Clinton camp have fought back after a damaging few days and will be able to go on revived, saying they've performed much better than expected in NH after losing so badly in Iowa.

Good news too perhaps for Hillary's campaign manager, whose job was said to be on the line tonight. Looks like he lives to fight another state, or two.

Now the pressure will be on Barack Obama as he is now seen as a serious contender. Will be interesting to see how he performs under intense scrutiny from his opponents and the media, like he has not experienced until now.

As predicted, John McCain has won the Republican fight in New Hampshire.

Michigan should have been next stop on the campaign trail but most candidates have withdrawn after a local scandal and the result there next Tuesday will have little or no significance. Next to watch are the states of Nevada and South Carolina in 11 days - a week Saturday.

NH exit polls say Obama wins, but not by a landslide...

Veteran American pollster Frank Luntz has called the New Hampshire primary for Barack Obama - but not by a double-digit margin over Hillary Clinton.

With the benefit of exit polls, Luntz was interviewed on BBC Newsnight. He says there's been another record turnout for both parties - similar to what happened in Iowa.

"Something's happening to the psyche of Americans that is getting people engaged..." he told Jeremy Paxman.

So, it looks as though Hillary will survive New Hampshire after all - Luntz says don't write Hillary off yet - he predicts the state of Nevada could be the big decider, which raises the spectre of Las Vegas calling the shots!

Whatever margin Barack Obama wins by tonight in New Hampshire, the electricity generated by Obama is already lighting up South Carolina where he has opened massive 20 points lead ahead of Hillary 19 days before the state decides.

One New York paper is even contemplating the unthinkable - the prospect of Barack Obama beating Hillary Clinton in her own backyard...

3.45am UPDATE: Looks like Hillary managed an astonishing comeback and is now heading to actually WIN the New Hampshire primary. With over two thirds of the precincts now reported, Hillary is ahead of Barack Obama by three points - 39 to 36 with John Edwards in third.

Cameron flip-flops again to jump on Obama bandwagon...

Tory Leader David Cameron previously backed Vietnam veteran John McCain, then former New York Mayor Rudi Guiliani to be next President of the United States. But now he's switched horses again - and hopped on the Obama bandwagon.

Sensing that something special is happening in the race for the White House, Dave doesn't want to be left behind. So he's reached for his favourite pair of flip-flops. On the eve of what's expected to be a big victory for Barack Obama in New Hampshire, the Tory leader has switched parties as well as candidates.

UPDATE: Here's what Cameron said on Radio FiveLive about Obama, from Wednesday's Guardian:

"I'm enjoying watching Barack Obama. I think he's a brilliant speaker, I think his optimism and sense of hope for the future is inspiring a lot of people. It's great to see. Too often [politics] gets down to hope and fear and I think it's wonderful when hope wins. I'm enjoying watching him, I must say. I think he's compelling," Cameron told Radio 5 Live's Breakfast programme.

"What people like is the sense that Obama generates, that we don't have to be like this, we can do better... I think we need that same sense of possibility here.

"I’m enjoying watching Barack Obama. I think he’s a brilliant speaker, I think his optimism & sense of hope for the future is inspiring a lot of people. It’s great to see. Too often politics gets down to hope and fear and I think it’s wonderful when hope wins. I’m enjoying watching him, I must say. I think he’s compelling. What people like is the sense that Obama generates, that we don’t have to be like this, we can do better…I think we need that same sense of possibility here"

Hillary talks about ironing, but is it curtains?

The question of whether America is ready to elect its first black President thankfully seems to be yes, but what about a woman in charge...?

Two young men shouted Iron my Shirt at an eve of poll Hillary Clinton rally in New Hampshire suggesting there might be a few dinosaurs left who believe a woman's place is in the house, but not the White House.

Turns out that it was more a stunt to promote a local radio station than a real political point.

Some grassy knoll cynics are even speculating that the whole Iron My Shirt stunt may have been posed by the Clinton camp themselves to turn down the heat she's feeling from Obama.

Iron My Shirt certainly didn't do Hillary any harm in the media war. It allowed her to make a point on national TV that she was hoping to break through the ultimate glass ceiling.

Later, she was able to joke that if anyone in her audience wanted to know how to iron a shirt, she was happy to talk about it!

Would it be too cruel (or premature) to suggest that it's not shirts that Hillary should be talking about ironing, but curtains...!

As Obama wins first real votes in NH, is Hillary preparing to quit?

The first 17 votes from the tiny outpost of Dixville Notch have already been counted - and there's no comfort for Hillary who didn't pick up a single vote.

While most communities of New Hampshire vote this evening, the settlement of Dixville Notch on the border with Canada traditionally stay up until after midnight the night before everyone else votes, so they can be the first community in their state to declare.

So very American!

Obama picked up seven of the ten Democrat votes from Dixville Notch.

More worrying for Hillary than the votes from one remote community is news that Barack Obama was ahead in every one of eight latest polls in New Hampshire released in the past 24 hours.

Some pundits are already reporting on rumours that Hillary is preparing to quit the race for the White House.

Hillary doesn't need to win tonight in New Hampshire. She is still front-runner in some of the bigger states and if she can survive New Hampshire by coming a credible second to Obama, she'll still be in with a shout of winning the nomination.

Don't forget, Hillary is married to the Comeback Kid!

UPDATE: I've deleted reference to caucusing in New Hampshire which I made in error. Unlike Iowa which has a caucus, New Hampshire in fact has a primary where individuals from each party vote for their favoured candidate rather than caucus. Some states caucus. Some vote. Very complicated. Very American (and I'm not even sure most Americans pretend to understand the system). Best not ask!

Irish bookies pay out on Obama to win final nomination...

Irish bookie Paddy Power says it's already game over for Hillary...

They are not even waiting to see the result in New Hampshire tomorrow night.

With 49 of the 50 states still to choose, Paddy Power are saying if you backed Obama to be the Democratic's Presidential candidate, collect your winnings now...!

Hillary resorts to John Major tactic to combat Obama's 13-point poll lead...

Latest USA Today/Gallup predicts a massive 13 point lead for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's New Hampshire Democratic primary.
Hillary is down four points since last month and Barack up nine.

Despite this, many pundits still predict Hillary will win on Tuesday. But most agree anything other than victory over Obama will leave her struggling to survive in the race for the White House.

She certainly came out fighting in a candidate's debate today, attacking Obama as a flip-flopper. It took a brave intervention by the third candidate John Edwards to question why Hillary didn't attack Obama when she was ahead...

Certainly, Hillary is seen as desperate, earlier being booed by members of her own party for personal attacks on Obama. It all seemed to backfire on Hillary, only adding to Obama's gravitas as the new front-runner.

The Clinton campaign is now being portrayed for the first time as wooden: TV pix tonight showed Hillary struggling on the stump with faulty microphones, dodgy megaphones, and a noisy bus engine drowning out her message.

By contrast, Obama appeared totally in control: storming ahead with much bigger turnouts than for Hillary and more electric performances from the Senator from Illinois.

Meanwhile, according to The Guardian, Hillary has changed tack by taking a leaf out of John Major's book and getting out a soap-box...

Is Obama the new JFK...?

Barack Obama has created such incredible momentum in the US presidential race in Iowa that if he wins big in New Hampshire, the second state to choose it's candidate, he'll no doubt be hailed as the new John Fitzgerald Kennedy.

Are we really witnessing a historic moment not seen since Kennedy in the 1960s...? Is it premature to say Obama has launched a new movement that will change American politics...?

Maybe. Just maybe...

Plenty of early sensations in previous races for the White House burned out and disappeared back into obscurity. And this race has only just begun: the intense tests in the big states when the campaign will inevitably get nastier are still a long way off.

But I've just u-tubed Obama's victory speech in Iowa and watched it in full. Then again. It is certainly electric - and definitely JFK, maybe with a bit of Martin Luther King for good measure... (sorry, for some reason I had to upload the utube in a separate post, but do have a look...)

JFK or not, The Obama moment that took Iowa by storm already seems to be spreading to the next battleground of New Hampshire.

The influential Daily Kos blog reveals a massive surge for Senator Barack Obama in New Hampshire since Thursday.

Just a few days ago, former first lady Hillary Clinton was at least six points ahead in New Hampshire and most likely Democrat runner for the White House in November.

But in an astonishing turnround, two polls taken in the hours since Iowa give Obama a double-digit lead over Clinton in New Hampshire.

And Fox News says the Hillary Clinton operation has already run aground in New Hampshire.

A CNN poll published tonight by the Boston Herald says it's a dead heat.

Obama is on fire.

His Iowa victory speech may indeed be a moment in history...

Certainly, if he beats Hillary in New Hampshire by double-digits, she surely couldn't become the comeback kid that husband Bill proved to be in 1992...or could she?

Only time will tell.

Guess who came 3rd in Iowa in 1992...?

OK, maybe I was over-hasty writing off Hillary Clinton's chances if she hit the buffers in Iowa. True, she has suffered a massive setback coming third among Democrat presidential contenders in Iowa...

But while the good Democrats of the tiny state have given a huge boost to the chances of Senator Barack Obama becoming the first Black President, historically, they haven't always backed the eventual winner.

In 1992, according to the Des Moines Register, Iowa Democrats caucused 3-1 in favour of Tom Harkin.

Er, Tom who, I hear you ask.

In third place that year - with a derisory three-per-cent support - was an ambitious young man who went on not only to defeat Harkin later, but to reach the White House less than a year later, and make Hillary Clinton America's First Lady.

Hillary may have been mauled in Iowa after starting the race runaway favourite, but now she knows she's in a real marathon contest with Barack Obama.

So while Senator Obama is the first Black politician ever to win the first state to caucus in the arcane process, Hillary will survive Iowa.

Watch her come out fighting in New Hampshire next Tuesday...