Obama makes it 12 states in a row...but Clinton wins RI

Looks like Barack Obama is about to claim his 12th victory in a row by beating Hillary Clinton for the Democrat primary in tiny Vermont tonight...

But it's still too close to call in both the crucial big states of Ohio and Texas, where there are also primaries tonight.

Hillary was expected to do well in the rust-belt depressed areas of Ohio - like Youngstown where I worked briefly in Al Gore's campaign eight years ago!

(Remember Al: he used to be the man who was the next President...!)

Despite Barack's victory in Vermont, I suspect Hillary will do enough to hang on.

But if she loses both Ohio and Texas, I hope she listens to her husband Bill.

He's said if she loses both, it's all over for her.

We've seen enough of Democrats tearing lumps out of each other and if it's not settled soon, the only winner will be John McCain, who sealed the Republican nomination in Vermont tonight...

UPDATE: Hillary has won Rhode Island, the fourth state choosing it's favoured Democrat candidate tonight, ending Barack Obama's month long run of wins...still too close to call in the big states of Ohio and Texas.

If Hillary is third in Iowa, can her campaign survive...?

In the early hours of Friday morning, we may have a better idea of who will be the next President of the most powerful nation in the world...

For months, the 'smart' money has been on Senator Hillary Clinton of New York returning to the White House in a Democratic landslide to become the real First Lady.

Just a few weeks ago, Hillary seemed unstoppable in her quest to become first female President of the United States.

My heart was with the younger Barack Obama to become the first Black President, though my head said it had to be Hillary.

But now the final poll before voters in the small state of Iowa make their choice of candidates, Hillary's campaign seems to have nose-dived, with Barack Obama now tipped as firm favourite.

Former Presidential running-mate John Edwards has also made a late surge in Iowa and the poll puts Hillary in third place in the Iowa caucus.

Hillary is way ahead in the polls for the next caucus-stop in New Hampshire in a few days, but if she's pushed into third place tonight, as this poll predicts, her campaign may not recover.

Republican supporters in Iowa also choose their favoured candidate tonight, but the Grand Old Party of George Dubya Bush appears to be in free-fall.

Little-known Mike Huckabee - former Arkansas governor - is the surprise Republican front-runner among a bunch of no-hopers. If he wins in Iowa, he'll come under intense pressure and may face his own nose-dive back into insignificance.

The most telling figures in the Republican caucus may well be the turn-out. Large numbers of die-hards refusing to engage with the arcane process will indicate how hacked off right-wingers are with the current state of the GOP and George Dubya's leadership.

I don't pretend to understand why a few thousand voters in Iowa seem to have the ability to make history...personally I think we Brits should have as much say as the good people of Iowa in who occupies the most powerful office in the world!

UPDATE: BBC calls the Republican race for Huckabee, with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in second place.

UPDATE 2: Democrat race called for Obama but no news yet on whether Hillary managed to hold second place.