Thursday, January 03, 2008

If Hillary is third in Iowa, can her campaign survive...?

In the early hours of Friday morning, we may have a better idea of who will be the next President of the most powerful nation in the world...

For months, the 'smart' money has been on Senator Hillary Clinton of New York returning to the White House in a Democratic landslide to become the real First Lady.

Just a few weeks ago, Hillary seemed unstoppable in her quest to become first female President of the United States.

My heart was with the younger Barack Obama to become the first Black President, though my head said it had to be Hillary.

But now the final poll before voters in the small state of Iowa make their choice of candidates, Hillary's campaign seems to have nose-dived, with Barack Obama now tipped as firm favourite.

Former Presidential running-mate John Edwards has also made a late surge in Iowa and the poll puts Hillary in third place in the Iowa caucus.

Hillary is way ahead in the polls for the next caucus-stop in New Hampshire in a few days, but if she's pushed into third place tonight, as this poll predicts, her campaign may not recover.

Republican supporters in Iowa also choose their favoured candidate tonight, but the Grand Old Party of George Dubya Bush appears to be in free-fall.

Little-known Mike Huckabee - former Arkansas governor - is the surprise Republican front-runner among a bunch of no-hopers. If he wins in Iowa, he'll come under intense pressure and may face his own nose-dive back into insignificance.

The most telling figures in the Republican caucus may well be the turn-out. Large numbers of die-hards refusing to engage with the arcane process will indicate how hacked off right-wingers are with the current state of the GOP and George Dubya's leadership.

I don't pretend to understand why a few thousand voters in Iowa seem to have the ability to make history...personally I think we Brits should have as much say as the good people of Iowa in who occupies the most powerful office in the world!

UPDATE: BBC calls the Republican race for Huckabee, with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in second place.

UPDATE 2: Democrat race called for Obama but no news yet on whether Hillary managed to hold second place.

3 comments:

Geoffrey Brooking said...

Very early days yet Phil.

I predict that her campaign will gather momentum as the year goes on.

Trying to call the Republican candidacy will be the hardest but even though this time last year I thought McCain would be the one in front I am starting to think that Gulliani might pull it off.

fairdealphil said...

Geoffrey:

You may be right about Hillary.

See my post "Guess who came 3rd in Iowa in 1992..?'

fairdealphil said...

Can't see Huckabee staying the course, though good to at least see money beaten in one state - Mitt Romney apparently spent nine times as much as Huckabee in Iowa.