Saturday, January 26, 2008

Will history be made in South Carolina tonight...? UPDATED

Could history be made tonight in South Carolina...? Or will we have to wait ten days until Super-Dooper Tuesday before we know who's likely to be the next President of the United States.

The smart money is on Vietnam veteran John McCain to win the Republican nomination but I can't see him, or anyone else, stopping the Democrats after eight years of George Dubya Bush.

So it's odds-on that within a year, we'll see either the first black President or the first female President in the White House.

My heart's still with Barack Obama, but my money's on former first Lady
Hillary Clinton.

Tonight, the pressure is on Barack Obama to win the first Democratic primary in a state with a large black population - almost a third.

Race itself appears to have become an issue in the race as reported by Associated Press tonight.

It will be interesting to see how the black vote in SC splits, with many recalling that Hillary's husband Bill was generally supported by black voters. There has been some analysis showing that Clinton has so far fared better in states with secret ballots for the nomination rather than in open caucus events, suggesting that race may still be an issue.

What makes tonight's contest more interesting is that South Carolina is the home state of the very able John Edwards who is currently running third in the race for the Democrat nomination. Edwards needs a strong showing tonight to stay in the race. If he drops out before Super Tuesday, whether he backs Obama or Clinton could be crucial in deciding the eventual winner.

The final polls before voting in SC put Barack Obama eight points ahead of Hillary Clinton, with each of them anxious to talk up their rival's chances and underplay their own expectations.

Voting closes at 7pm local time in SC and CNN are reporting a record turnout in places, which could favour Obama.

I can see it's going to be another long night for anoraks like me...but nothing compared to the long night faced by the frontrunners and their campaign teams.

As the polls close in South Carolina, the race hots up in the 21 Super Tuesday states. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be flying out of South Carolina later tonight to start campaigning elsewhere - even before tonight's results are known.

UPDATE: With voting now closed, exit polls analysed but no actual votes yet counted, CNN are predicting Obama will win South Carolina comfortably.

2 comments:

Lee Griffin said...

The exit polls and national polls really don't lie, and it led to a pretty decent prediction on my place. What is interesting is how many women voted for Obama, and how that could be used by his camp to spin a greater victory.

I think Edwards did good, and he is better for Obama staying in the race.

fairdealphil said...

Lee

Good call in predicting 50% plus of the vote for Obama.

But iof the exit polls and national polls don't 'lie', how come they only had him eight points ahead - and were talking about a 'tight' contest right up to polling day?

In fact, Obama won by 27 points - double Hillary Clinton's vote.

Polls generally talk of an accuracy margin of a couple of per cent - not 27 points!!!

Who will Edwards endorse when he finally does drop out - academic I guess if he's still in for Super Tuesday, but still interesting...??