Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Obama wins Georgia and Illinois: Clinton wins Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee...

First CNN predictions from Super Tuesday calls Georgia and Illinois for Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton wins Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee.

No surprise that Hillary wins President Clinton's home state of Arkansas.

No surprise either that Obama wins either his home state of Illinois or Georgia where he led from start to finish: CNN originally forecast Obama winning 2:1 over Hillary which would have been even bigger than his win in South Carolina.

But with the first actual results in, CNN have closed their Georgia prediction to an Obama win in the order of 55%-45%.

All of which seems to show once again how wildly out American pollsters can be, even on their exit polls.

So it's a long night ahead with almost half of all American voters eligible to vote today, and and polls now closed in half the states choosing tonight. There's still three more hours of voting on the west coast including California, where Hillary is still favourite.

Turnout appears to be reaching a record high coast-to-coast reflecting the closeness of the Clinton-Obama clash.

But even when all the Super Tuesday votes are counted in all the states, many pundits expect the Democrat race to be so close that there may not even be a clear winner when we wake up tomorrow.

In the Republican camp, tonight is expected to give Vietnam veteran John McCain the nomination, though early predictions give Romney some states.

If McCain does clinch the nomination at 71 he would be the oldest ever President to enter the White House - if he were to win the general election in the fall.

So it looks likely that the next President will either be the first woman President, the first black President or the oldest ever President...

McCain still favoured to win Connecticut, Illinois and New Jersey, with Mitt Romney taking Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee taking West Virginia.

Clinton projected to win Massachusetts by at least ten points. This is a big loss for Obama who spent eve of poll rallying his vote in Mass. Clinton also projected to win her own state of New York, as well as next door New Jersey, and the key state of Arizona.

Obama protected to win Alabama and Delaware.

So with ten of tonight's 24 states now called, Clinton is projected to win six and Obama four.

With voting still going on in California, it's likely to be our breakfast time before clear results are in with delays expected due to higher than expected turnout.

Bedtime! A new day dawns, does it not?

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