Saturday, September 22, 2007

Will he or won't he...?

Thanks to the Torygraph, we discovered today that Gordon Brown is on course for a landslide victory if he calls an early General Election.

That's the prediction of their latest YouGov poll which gives Labour a lead which would deliver an increased Labour majority of over 100 if translated into a general election.

The Prime Minister of course, will decide when to call the only poll that counts.
But today's YouGov poll - and tomorrow's similar good news in another poll for the Mirror - has ramped up election fever on the eve of Labour's Conference here in Bournemouth.

Gordon was giving no clues tonight at a welcome event for North West delegates he attended with his wife Sarah.

But he was on top form - and given a rousing reception as he congratulated North West activists on their recent wins in council by-elections in Rossendale and Darwen where Labour took two seats from the Tories on Thursday. He also mentioned Liverpool where Labour won a seat from the LibDems last week.

He didn't have to mention the spectacular 17% swing from Tories to Labour at a by election in Worcester where the Tories lost control of the council in the early hours of doubt he saved that one for the West Midlands Reception!


Geoffrey Brooking said...


We are in agreement at last are we Mr Dilks???

Maybe my £100 at 16/1 that Brown will go in October (placed only in June) with William Hill is starting to look good then?

This is Gordon Brown's big chance and he just has to grasp it.

Just imagine being labelled a bottle boy for the rest of your premiership.

Personally, I think he would get a five year mandate with the same type of majority of he went on October 25th.

Don't think he would get a majority of 100 because the Conservatives seem to be fairing better in the south-east south of say Peterborough and will make one or two gains at the expense of the Lib-Dems.

The big question in my opinion is the one that Darren C quite rightly makes on the Vote 2007 blog which is could the Conservative Party keep its head together and stay on the centre ground if and when Labour get re-elected?

On one side they could be more hungrier for power like Labour were after 1992 but on the other side, all hell could break loose from the right wing!

Still, its nice to see that your secret is nice wide open now Phil and that I havn't been talking gobbledegook for the last month.

Anonymous said...

Hope Brown goes for it for the Lib Dems sake.

No candidate in Aberdeen South. No candidate in Ludlow. No candidate in Dorset West. No candidate in Torridge. No candidate in Bournemouth West. No candidate in Leicester South. No candidate in Harborough. No candidate in Oldham East & Saddleworth. No candidate in Haltemprice & Howden. No candidate in Somerset North.

These are all in the top forty notional targets according to Anthony Wells, and the 40 includes a handful of seats with LibDem incumbents. If only one of these is a "key" seat then the LibDems clearly aren't terribly optimistic about their chances of progress!

Other notable exceptions include the lack of new candidate in Harrogate & Knaresborough, and more locally no LibDem candidates selected in nearby seats to me like Pendle and Stockport, despite LD control of those Councils.

fairdealphil said...


is your £100 bet for the Prime Minister to announce an election in October or tro hold one then??